It’s a bird, it’s a plane, it’s a balloon?
*story still developing, information may change*
The past few days have been riddled with news of the giant Chinese “spy” balloon making its way across the United States (US) before being shot down over the Atlantic. As a result, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken abruptly postponed his trip to China. With that said, some may wonder, “what’s the big deal?”
From a foreign policy standpoint, this isn’t ideal. After years of trading verbal barbs and engaging in trade wars, the November 2022 meeting between US President Joseph Biden and Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping offered a glimmer of hope that the US-China relationship was beginning to thaw. Both leaders planned a follow-up meeting for their highest-ranking diplomats to meet in early 2023.
Fast forward to today and the climate couldn’t be icier. An embarrassing moment for Beijing quickly turned into the US being warned that China would respond in kind in a similar situation. China has also insinuated that Blinken’s visit wasn’t even confirmed since there was no formal announcement, a possible attempt to downplay the trip’s postponement.
Spy balloons were often used for espionage in the 19th century, including in the US during the Civil War. However, China possessing high-tech satellites that fly over the US daily would make using a balloon inefficient for clandestine activities. As of now, there hasn’t been any evidence that this balloon had the capability to transmit data back to a home base for nefarious purposes. So again, what is the issue? Timing.
From a political standpoint, something as relatively benign as a balloon floating in US airspace will be looked at with a high level of suspicion. The political climate in the US would not have allowed Blinken to continue his trip to Beijing without the Biden administration receiving a significant amount of backlash. Being tough on China has been a hallmark of US foreign policy for over a decade. Given that Biden’s leadership has been called into question numerous times by Republicans, the administration will use any opportunity to “stand up” to China, even when it’s not wholly warranted.
China also needs to show strength when dealing with the US. With the postponement of the meeting, remarks from Chinese officials went from somewhat apologetic to hawkish in only a few days. Also, like the Biden administration, Chairman Xi is fully aware of the optics and must show strength and continuity in his rhetoric towards the US.
Unfortunately, the US’ Achilles heel in this situation is its tendency to overreact. Of all the risks China poses to the US, this incident should rank very low. China poses a real threat through highly sophisticated means of spying and collecting data such as human intelligence, intellectual property theft, and satellites, as mentioned earlier. While we must take these things seriously, our response needs to be more proportionate to the issue, regardless of domestic political pressure to “save face.”