法国 v. 美国: French- US Divergence on China Strategy
Upon returning from his 3-day trip to China, French President Emmanuel Macron made a statement that sent shock waves around the world. Macron spoke with reporters expressing his wish to not interfere with Cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwan. He further stated that Europe should figure out its own strategy separate from the United States and China while also reducing reliance on the United States and its currency. With all that said, it’s essential to understand why this is such a big deal and what it means for the United States and its China strategy.
TECHNOLOGY
Macron’s remarks could put the United States’ strategy of stemming China’s access to critical technology at risk. The recently established pact with the Netherlands and Japan, meant to block Chinese access to semiconductor chips and chip making technology for military use, was supposed to be the beginning of bringing more allies into the fold.
However, Macron’s remarks may create a ripple effect making countries even more hesitant to join the United States and creating their own aggressive policies towards China. Given the rising tensions between China and Taiwan, a weak blockade safeguarding technology from China could prove disastrous for Taiwan in the future.
CHINA’S DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY
China’s soft power has been highly effective. From its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects to convincing countries to switch allegiance from Taiwan to China (Honduras being the most recent), China’s diplomatic strategy has been top-tier. China brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran is another example of how China’s prowess could threaten the United States’ geopolitical interests. Furthermore, China seeking to trade in Yuan is a clear signal from Beijing that it aims to counter and even replace the dollar. It’s possible that Macron saw the writing on the wall making this the catalyst for him to speak on the issue in this manner.
LOOKING AHEAD: WILL THE UNITES STATES GO IT ALONE?
Past examples have shown the United States has no issue with unilaterally taking on its adversaries, Iraq being the most “famous.” However, this strategy may be less effective since China is not an average adversary. China’s economic clout alone has made countries and corporations falter and fall in line. A perfect example is Macron’s accompanying delegation of business executives who brokered deals with China during the visit. In short, the traditional strong-arming tactic the United States is known for will not work when so many countries rely on China and its market.
The United States has a tough road ahead of it. With other issues like the Russia-Ukraine War, time will only tell if the United States can rally its allies. However, the United States must prove that it can stick to its commitments, which has been called into question due to recent instances of pulling out of international agreements and pacts, such as the Iran Nuclear Deal and the Paris Climate Agreement. Since the previous administration, allies are beginning to find ways to fend for themselves and determine their own destiny instead of aligning with a great power. It may be time for the United States to tap back into its soft power with sincerity to regain its allies’ confidence and trust.